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Coral slash odds on Remain winning EU Referendum

Sam Barnard | June 20, 2016

Remain odds slash despite polls being dead level

As the momentous EU referendum date looms, Coral have slashed the odds on the Remain campaign winning after the Thursday, June 23rd judgement day to an odds-on price of 1/5 (from 1/3), after political punters put significant money on the UK staying in, in the last 72 hours. 

The odds on Leave, which had been as short as 5/4 at the end of last week, are now out to 10/3, the latest swing in what Coral are calling the most volatile political betting market ever.

EU referendum

“A month ago, Remain was 1/7 and Leave 4/1, and in betting terms the contest looked as good as over, but then we saw a sustained surge of bets placed on Leave, which saw their odds collapse to as short as 6/5, and at that stage it looked as if they could even take over as favourites,” said Coral’s David Stevens.

“Now, in what can only be described as the most volatile political betting market ever, there has been a complete U-turn back to Remain, with 85 per cent of the bets taken since Saturday morning backing that outcome, and it is once again a long odds-on favourite, despite the polls currently having the two sides closely matched ahead of Thursday’s vote.”

Should I stay or should I go?

According to the Financial Times’ poll of polls, updated on June 20th, the two camps running are dead level on 44 per cent each, with 12 per cent of people still undecided, which has incidentally resulted in the value of the British pound rising.

Meanwhile, polling movement from September 1st 2015 until June 20th 2016 has the exact same figures, suggesting that anything really can happen. That undecided minority could swing things to the Brexit or Remain sides as campaigners claw for last-gasp support and extra votes.

As soon as June 17th, polls had the Leave campaign just ahead at 44 per cent to 42, while Remain were 45-42 up the following day.

In the latest poll conducted by Coral via our social media channels, 46 per cent of punters say Britain will Remain.

Whatever the outcome, the British public will look on with hope and intrigue, so why not take a look at more of our markets on the EU referendum? The price of the Remain winning percentage being 50.1 per cent to 55 per cent is the favourite outcome at 13/8.

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