Seagulls should have enough to humble Hull at home
You have to go back to 1965 for the last time Hull City beat Brighton and Hove Albion on the south coast. Couple that with just one Tigers win in the last five meetings in this fixture, and the possibility of an FA Cup upset looks on the cards.
Hull have also never beaten Brighton in the world’s oldest knockout football competition, so the Premier League outfit are 2/1 for victory – compared with odds of 6/4 on hosts Albion. It’s 9/4 for a draw in this fifth round tie.
Steve Bruce’s prospects look bleak then, and are bleaker still as he cannot field first-choice front two Nikica Jelavic and Shane Long. Both came to the KC Stadium in January and between them have scored the last three Tigers goals, but already played for their previous clubs in the cup.
Without Jelavic and Long, the goal burden may fall to Matty Fryatt. He bagged a brace in round four as City got past Southend United – managed by former Hull boss Phil Brown. Fryatt is 2/1 to score anytime against Brighton and an 11/1 shot to net two or more.
Seagulls frontman Leonardo Ulloa, meanwhile, has hit form, with decisive goals in back-to-back 1-0 home wins in the last two Championship outings. Back the Argentine to score anytime at 6/4 or first at 11/2.
Oscar Garcia’s side are chasing a play-off place, and have kept four clean sheets in as many home games. Prices of 11/4 on a win to nil and 8/5 on a clean sheet here are extremely tempting.
Each of the last four meetings between the Seagulls and the Tigers have contained less than 1.5 goals. This market is also fantastic value at 13/8.
In both of last term’s encounters when Hull earned promotion back to the top-flight, the home side won by a single goal. Brighton are an attractive 11/2 to earn victory by this scoreline again.
Punters seeking outside bets should look to the time of first goal markets. Those late winners last season came in the last 10 minutes, so odds of 16/1 on the net bulging in the 81-90 bracket are worth considering.
Bruce’s Tigers have scored first in two of their last three Premier League matches in the 11-20 minutes period. It’s a 10/1 shot for them to do that here.