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Bobs Worth not a stats friend to regain Gold Cup crown in 2015

Cottage Rake, Arkle, L’Escargot and Best Mate. This is the illustrious list of horses that have successfully retained the Cheltenham Gold Cup since the Second World War.

Lord Windermere is 10/1 to become the fifth horse to accomplish this feat in 2015, while Bobs Worth is the same price to triumph and join a different list that currently features just the one name.

Kauto Star is the only former Gold Cup winner to have given up the title before winning it back again and Bobs Worth will have the chance to emulate this achievement in 2015, having finished a four-length fifth to Lord Windermere.

The immediate bad news for Bobs Worth is that only twice in the last decade has a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner contested the race in the previous year and neither of this pair finished out of the places.

Furthermore, there is a strong age statistic that suggests that Bobs Worth is too old to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup for a second time.

No horse has triumphed that has been older than nine since Cool Dawn in 1998, while only five 10-year-olds have entered the winners’ enclosure in the last 40 years.

More positive news for Bobs Worth supporters is that Nicky Henderson’s runners may be in better form at the 2015 Festival.

After four winners in 2013 and a mighty seven in 2012, Henderson could only conjure up the one victor in 2014, which was the 14/1 Whisper in the Coral Cup.

In the headline contests, My Tent Or Yours was beaten by the lesser rated Jezki in the Champion Hurdle and Captain Conan never got going and was pulled up in the Champion Chase.

Meanwhile, Dawalan was a beaten favourite in the Fred Winter and the likes of Oscar Whisky, Captain Cutter and Royal Irish Hussar were fancied for their respective contests, but finished out of the places.