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Chester Cup trendwatch: 10-year trends favour Irish raider Olympiad

The flat season is really firing on all cylinders now with the Guineas done and dusted and the Espom classics under a month away, in the meantime there is the small matter of the three day spectacular Chester Cup meeting to be getting on with. The eponymous heritage handicap is the first big stayers’ event of the campaign and below news.coral.co.uk sifts through the common trends fulfilled by winners over the past decade in order to help you narrow down the field with 9/1 shot Olympiad emerging as a likely sort.

Nine of the last ten winners had won over 2m or more.

So not: Investissement, Cavaleiro, Justification, Ingleby Spirit, Good Morning Star, Kiama Bay, Perennial, Life And Soul, Albert Bridge, Harrison’s Cave, Franciscan, Scatter Dice, Bondage, Palazzo Bianco, Mica Mika, Lexington Bay and Gabrial’s Star.

Eight of the last 10 to carry off the prize carried 8st8lbs or more.

So not: Suraj, Very Good Day, Countrywide Flame, Montaser, Desert Recluse, Bowdler’s Magic, Montaff, Mashaari, Red Orator, Aazif, Kian’s Delight, Toploski.

A burden of more than 9st6lbs has been carried to victory just three times in the race’s 36 year history.

So not: Simenon, Thimaar, Ile De Re.

Analysis

The trendy types – Tominator, Address Unknown and Olympiad.

10/1 shot Tominator was a rock solid handicap performer on the flat last term winning over 1m5f at Chester before ending the campaign by placing third in the 2m2f Cesarewitch at Newmarket.

He’ll enjoy the likely good-to-firm going having finished in the first two in three of his seven starts on such ground and it may help him improve on a poor 13th in last year’s soft ground running. However it must be noted that he’s on a career-high mark of 100, having never won off higher than 96 – others may be better handicapped.

Address Unknown – 20/1 in Coral’s Chester Cup betting – is another who ran poorly in this event last year finishing one place in front of Tominator. His sole win over more 2m was taken off a slow pace that trainer Richard Fahey acknowledged may helped his charge get the trip.

Dermot Weld knows how to ready a raid on a big English prize, scoring with five of his nine runners on this side of the Irish Sea last term. His Olympiad – 9/1 in the Chester Cup betting – is unexposed, with just six career races on the clock and will relish the good-to-firm conditions on which he scored over 2m at York last year.

He may have bombed out early when a well backed fancy for the Cesarewitch on his last run of the 2012 campaign, but his trainer’s decision to send him over again for this speaks volumes. After all, Weld knows a thing or two about readying stayers having trained Rite Of Passage to success in Ascot’s Long Distance Cup and Gold Cup in recent years.