Coral 2015 Investec Derby stats guide
The Investec Derby is considered the ultimate test for a three-year-old due to the unique undulations of Epsom and a number of attributes are needed to land the premier Classic.
One of the most important in the 1m 4f Group 1 contest is stamina.
Thirteen of the last 15 winners had ran over 7f further as a two-year-old, and the two others to have scored in that period – Sinndar (2000) and Ruler Of The World (2013) – were unraced as a juvenile.
Ruler Of The World was a son of super stallion Galileo, who won the Derby in 2001, and also sired Australia who won last year’s renewal. His offspring are bred to come into their own over middle distances, and also tend to have a potent turn of foot.
Galileo has two sons running in this year’s renewal; the well-backed Giovanni Canaletto, who is bidding to provide all conquering Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien with his fourth consecutive success in the contest, and rank outsider Rocky Rider who is trained by Andrew Balding.
Current Derby favourite Golden Horn won the Dante Stakes at York over 1m 2f, which is considered to be a key trial for the race, but on breeding is far from certain to see out the extra two furlongs of the Derby trip.
Current form is also crucial, as any potential winner needs to be right at the top of their game.
This is confirmed by the stats, as 11 of the last 15 winners had won their race immediately prior to the Derby and the other four had all been placed.
All of the last 15 winners had also ran within the last 35 days and run just once or twice in the season of the Derby.
The latter is a negative for the strongly fancied Hans Holbein and fellow Irish raider Success Days who have both had three runs so far this season.
Along with current form, class is also an obvious requirement and 14 of the last 15 winners had previously won a Group race. Only Workforce in 2010 hadn’t, but he had run very well to finish runner-up in the Group 2 Dante Stakes at York.
Finally, the betting is also a good guide to any race and since 2000 no horse that has won the Derby has has started at odds bigger than 7/1.
That backs up the need to have a horse with strong and solid form, but it’s worth noting that only four favourites have won in the lats 15 years – the last to do so being Camelot in 2012.