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Coral 2016 Investec Derby stats guide

David Metcalf | June 1, 2016

Key stats to help find winner of Epsom Classic

The Investec Derby is considered the ultimate test for a three-year-old due to the unique undulations of Epsom and a number of attributes are needed to land the premier Classic.

One of the most important in the 1m 4f Group 1 contest is stamina.

Fourteen of the last 16 winners had ran over 7f or further as a two-year-old, and the two others to have scored in that period – Sinndar (2000) and Ruler Of The World (2013) – were unraced as a juvenile.

Ruler Of The World was a son of super stallion Galileo, who won the Derby in 2001, and also sired Australia who prevailed in 2015. His offspring are bred to come into their own over middle distances, and also tend to have a potent turn of foot.

Galileo strongly represented

Galileo has seven sons entered in this year’s renewal on Saturday, June 4th, in the shape of Beacon Rock, Bravery, Deauville, Idaho, Port Douglas, US Army Ranger and Ulysses.

US Army Ranger

The first six of those are all trained in Ireland by Aidan O’Brien, and US Army Ranger is considered the stable number one and currently 5/1 second-favourite with Coral.

US Army Ranger is unbeaten in two starts, and scrambled home in the Group 3 Chester Vase when last seen in action. He has a similar profile to Ruler Of The World, who won the Vase in 2013 before winning the Derby. Ballydoyle handler O’Brien has a tremendous record in the race, having won it five times since 2001.

Ulysses is trained by Sir Michael Stoute, who has also saddled five Derby winners.

The colt has only had three starts and comes into the race on the back of an eight length win in a Newbury maiden. The Derby represents a big step up in class, but Stoute is not a trainer to go tilting at windmills and Ulysses is clearly held in very high regard.

Dante a key trial

Wings Of Desire

Current Derby favourite Wings Of Desire (9/2) won the Dante Stakes at York over 1m 2f, which is considered to be a key trial for the race.

The John Gosden trained colt had previously won over 1m 4f at Wolverhampton, so stamina is not going to be an issue, and is bidding to follow in the footsteps of stable companion Golden Horn who did the Dante/Derby double last year.

Current form is also crucial, as any potential winner needs to be right at the top of their game.

This is confirmed by the stats, as 12 of the last 16 winners had won their race immediately prior to the Derby with the other four being placed.

All of the last 16 winners had also ran within the last 35 days and run just once or twice in the season of the Derby.

Humphrey_Bogart

The latter is a negative for Beacon Rock, Bravery, Humphrey Bogart, Red Verdon, Shogun and Wings Of Desire.

However, it’s worth noting that Wing’s Of Desire didn’t make his racecourse debut until May of this year, is clearly improving at a rate of knots, and doesn’t fit into the normal bracket for the stat.

Class always prevails

Along with current form, class is also an obvious requirement and 14 of the last 16 winners had previously won a Group race. Only Workforce in 2010 hadn’t, but he had run very well to finish runner-up in the Group 2 Dante Stakes at York.

Finally, the betting is also a good guide to any race and since 2000 no horse that has won the Derby has has started at odds bigger than 7/1.

That backs up the need to have a horse with strong and solid form. Five favourites have won in the last 16 years, the last to do so being Golden Horn 12 months ago.

Related

You’ll find comprehensive coverage of the Derby Festival on our Epsom page.

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