King George VI Chase stats guide
The big race on Boxing Day is the King George VI Chase at Kempton (3.10pm) and there are a number of strong stats which suggest last year’s winner Silviniaco Conti is a worthy favourite to retain his crown.
Here’s my guide to the leading trends for the Grade 1 feature race:
The stats massively favour young horses.
Nine of the last 12 winners have been aged eight of under, and eight of those have been either six or seven-year-olds.
The legendary Kauto Star is the only horse over eight in the last decade to win the contest having triumphed for a record breaking fifth time when landing the 2011 renewal.
Another legend, four-time winner Desert Orchid, was the last 10-year-old to win when dominating the event between 1986 and 1990.
Class and recent form:
Each of the last 12 winners all entered the race having previously won a Grade 1 contest and officially been rated 169 or higher.
Eleven of the last 12 have also raced within the five weeks leading up to the contest, and 11 out of the last 12 have finished in the first three on their previous outing.
Seven of the last 12 winners came into the race on the back of a win.
Favourites have a good record having won nine of the last 12 renewals, and only once has the jolly failed to ake the frame in that period.
Although just one has won in the last four runnings, the winner has come from the top two in the market, with Long Run in 2010 being the biggest priced at 9/2.
Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson have dominated the race in recent times, winning the last eight runnings between them.
Nicholls has saddled six winners in that period, including last year’s victor Silviniaco Conti.
The Ditcheat handler has overall won the contest a record breaking eight times, and will once again be represented by Silviniaco Conti who is bidding to follow in the footsteps of Kauto Star, Long Run and Kicking King who all won the race more than once during the past decade.
Conclusion: Silviniaco Conti ticks all the right boxes as he bids to land back-to-back successes in the contest. He is the right age, officially the highest rated in the line-up, comes into the race on the back of a win and is trained by Paul Nicholls who has an outstanding record in the race.