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Major shake-up in Arc betting as Treve flops

There has been a major shake-up in the betting for next month’s Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe following the traditional trials day at Longchamp which saw last year’s heroine Treve beaten for a third time this season.

The Criquette Head-Maarek trained filly could finish only fourth in the Prix Vermeille, in which she ran very flat and was beaten 1 1/2 lengths by Baltic Baroness after running very flat.

It was a performance which saw Coral push Treve out to 7/1 (from 7/2 fav) to retain her crown in the Arc, and although her handler says she remains on course for the race the daughter of Motivator looks a shadow of her former self.

To me it looks as if the extremely hard race Treve had on seasonal reappearance in the Prix Ganay when losing out to Cirrus Des Aigles after a prolonged ding dong battle throughout the final furlong has left it’s mark, and there has to be major doubts as to whther the four-year-old will be able to bounce back in time for the Group 1 European showpiece.

Her defeat means that Avenir Certain, Ectot and Taghrooda are Coral’s 5/1 co-favourites for the Arc on Sunday, October 5th.

Ectot had been 16/1 before running out the impressive winner of the Prix Neil, and looks a major player for Treve’s owner owner Sheikh Joaan Al Thani.

Another market mover was last year’s Derby winner Ruler of the World (14/1 from 33s), who is also owned by Sheikh Joaan Al Thani and made all in the hands of Frankie Dettori for a comfortable success in the Prix Foy.

Coral’s David Stevens said: “Ectot was the big mover in the Arc betting following a winning reappearance in the Prix Niel, and his jockey Gregory Benoist now has the enviable job of choosing between that one and Avenir Certain for the Longchamp showpiece, but by contrast Treve has gone the other way in the market, although Criquette Head-Maarek will give backers hope by saying last year’s winner should not be written off yet.

“Ruler Of The World has entered the Arc picture after his Foy victory, while Japan have a strong-looking hand with Just A Way and Harp Star, and the St Leger hero Kingston Hill is right in the mix at 10/1, in what is shaping up to be a wide-open Longchamp showpiece.”

The opening winner on the Longchamp card, Mirza, is 16/1 (from 33-1) with Coral for the Prix de l’Abbaye, while Cursory Glance remains the 10/1 favourite for next year’s Qipco 1,000 Guineas after giving trainer Roger Varian a weekend Group 1 double when winning the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh.