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The 1000 Guineas betting top four compared – form and breeding

Form

Hot Snap and Just The Judge – 11/4 and 5/1 in Coral’s 100 Guineas betting respectively – are both yet to have their colours lowered in competition. The former has proven herself this season in no uncertain terms when overcoming greenness to complete a first to last victory over Sky Lantern in the Nell Gwyn Stakes last month in a time 0.45 seconds faster than the winner of the Free Handicap – won by 2000 Guineas entrant Garswood – on the same card.

What A Name – 9/2 second favourite for the big race – finished one and a quarter lengths behind the French 2000 Guineas bound Olympic Glory in a Longchamp Grade 1 last term and the fact that that feat was matched by 116-rated Moohajim in the Greenham Stakes last month, pays that form a compliment. Moth stepped up massively on a winless juvenile campaign when a four-and-a-half length maiden winner last time out, but with the third failing to upgrade the form and the fourth a seven length winner next time the quality of that race is far from certain.

Breeding

Only one Guineas winner in the last 10 had a sire with a stamina index (an aggregate of the winning trips of all his offspring to have scored a competitive victory date) of above 10f so 7/1 shot Moth’s being sired by derby winner Galileo is far from ideal.

She may well lack the pace of Hot Snap who is by Group 1 winning sprinter Pivotal out of mare by Guineas winner and two-times sire of Guineas winners Kingmambo.

Just the Judge is by Lawman, a Group 1 winner over 1m and 1m1f himself, who has produced Group1 winning milers Most Improved and Law Enforcement in recent seasons. With Most Improved scoring his top table success on good to soft and Lawman taking all his top level wins on ground softer than good the good-to-firm ground at HQ could be an issue.

What A Name was bred in America from Mr Greeley, a stallion with form when it comes to good-to-firm ground 1000 Guineas winners having fathered Jim Bolger’s 2007 heoine Finsceal Beo.

Conclusions

Moth will need to improve substantially on the form she’s shown so far, but doesn’t look ideally bred to do so.

Concern arising from breeding over Just The Judge’s form on good-to-firm ground, can be partially ameliorated by her listed victory on the surface, but it remains to be seen whether she can cut against the top filles on the soundest surfaces.

What A Name on the other hand has some serious form on good to soft behind Olympic Glory, with the promise that she may improve for good-to-firm ground like Guineas-winning half sister.

Being so lightly raced Hot Snap has the promise of further improvement for racecourse experience allied to a speedy pedigree that should enjoy the going at HQ on Sunday.