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2000 Guineas trendwatch – omens bode well for George Vancouver

Saturday the fourth of May will see Newmarket’s Rowley Mile course host the first classic of the season as the colts of the 2010 crop do battle in the 2000 Guineas. With no fewer than 13 lightly-raced types set to go to post, news.coral.co.uk consults the trends that unite the race’s winners over the last decade to give you some pointers on this year’s 2000 Guineas betting.

Nine of the last 10 to win had previously scored at Group level, with the exception placing in a Group 2 contest.

So not: Don’t Bother Me, Garswood, Glory Awaits, Kyllachy Rise.

The last 10 victors had all finished in the first three places in their previous race.

So not: Correspondent, Leitir Mor, Cristoforo Colombo.

Every winner in the past decade had their previous race after August of the preceding year.

So not: Mars

Six of the last 10 to take the laurels were doing so on their first run of the season – the other four had won a recognised Guineas trial on their sole run of that season (the Prix Djebel, the Craven, the Greenham or the Leopardstown Guineas trial).

So not: Moohajim.

The last 10 Guineas heroes were born before the sixth of April.

So not: Dawn Approach

Analysis

The trendy types – Toronado, George Vancouver. NB: Dawn Approach

It’s little surprise to see Richard Hannon’s Toronado – 9/4 second favourite in the 2000 Guineas betting with Coral – satisfying the most prevalent 10 year trends surrounding the race. His progression has been hard to fault in a four race unbeaten career with Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf fourth Dundonnel unable to get within four lengths of him in the Craven despite Richard Hughes never having to take the winner off the bridle.

The only slight concern about him is whether or not he will be quite speedy enough for 1m classic, with his sire High Chaparral running over trips of 1m2f or further throughout his three and four year old campaigns.

That wouldn’t appear to be a bother for Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf winner George Vancouver – a 16/1 shot for the big race – whose sire Henrythenavigator won Group 1 mile races at Newmarket, the Curragh, Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood during his classic season. It’s perhaps no coincidence that his best performances were all achieved on ground that was good or firmer.

The Aidan O’Brien colt won his maiden at the third time of asking on the all-weather at Dundalk, having come up way short of the mark in soft-to-heavy going contests. Then on his next start he was beaten just a quarter length by the pacey Reckless Abandon in the 6f Prix Morny on good ground, before rounding off his campaign with a firm ground Group 1 success at Santa Anita.

Given he’s likely to encounter good ground at Newmarket on Saturday, George Vancouver is entitled to finish a fair bit closer than the three-and-a-half-length third he managed behind Dawn Approach on good-to-soft going in last season’s Dewhurst.