Trend guide for the 2018 St Leger at Doncaster
Nick Murphy | 14 September 2018
Preview of the race
The final Classic of the season will see a host of top class three-year-olds battle it out in the St Leger at Doncaster. Kew Gardens, Lah Ti Dar, Old Persian and Loxley all remain in contention following Monday’s latest declaration stage.
The situation is subject to change. But who comes out on top currently based on trends? The Coral News Team has taken a look.
9/10 had run 3-5 times already that season
It’s imperative in the St Leger that any prospective winner has got plenty of seasonal experience under their belt. Too much wear and tear in the calendar year can make the 1m 6f course a daunting prospect.
Only Simple Verse in 2015 has triumphed in the last decade having run six or more times in the same year.
That means ante-post favourite Kew Gardens bites the dust, along with Old Persian, Derby runner-up Dee Ex Bee and Proschema. The supplemented Maid Up – seven runs so far this season – also falls by the wayside.
8/10 had 2 or 3 career wins
Getting in the winning habit is equally as important. No race winner in the last 10 years had come into the renewal with a single success. On that basis, Zabriskie can be ruled out.
Likewise, only Capri and Leading Light managed to triumph with four or more career wins. Loxley also fall by the wayside as a result.
8/10 had not previously raced at Doncaster
A strange quirk of the formbook means that eight of the last 10 winners went in with no course experience. Kingston Hill (2014) and Encke (2012) are the only two to have previously raced at Doncaster before tackling the St Leger.
The Pentagon is the next to go for Aidan O’Brien.
7/10 had an OR of 110+
An Official Rating of 110 or above is generally sufficient enough to take the St Leger crown. Harbour Law got home off a mark of 102 in 2016, although that was in tougher conditions.
Seven of the last 10 winners confirm to the 100+ trend, which is bad news for Raymond Tusk. Southern France and Nelson also go based on the current OR awarded by Horse Racing Ireland. Both could be pulled out by Saturday at any rate.
6/10 went off at 8/1 or shorter
Harbour Law (22/1) and Encke (25/1) may have gone off at a double-figure price but it generally pays to stick near the front of the market.
And the good news for this trend guide is that the only remaining runner – Lah Ti Dar – heads the betting after confirmation earlier in the week that she will head to the St Leger.
John Gosden’s star filly has won three out of three so far, by a combined distance over 22l. She’s taken to do the business again on Saturday at Doncaster.
For more St Leger odds click here.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing