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2019 World Darts Championship Final Betting Tips: Van Gerwen v Smith

Nick Murphy | 31 December 2018

Betting preview and latest odds for Ally Pally showpiece

A tournament which began with 96 tungsten tossing hopefuls has been whittled down to just two. But who will come out on top between Michael van Gerwen and Michael Smith in the 2019 PDC World Darts Championship Final?  

MVG is going for his third Alexandra Palace crown, while Smith is hoping to upset the odds in his maiden Ally Pally Final. You can catch the action live on Sky Sports Main Event or Sky Sports Darts from 8pm.

And we’ve previewed the first sporting world championship of the year below.

How did they get here?

Van Gerwen saw off Alan Tabern, Max Hopp, Adrian Lewis and Ryan Joyce en-route to a semi-final clash with Gary Anderson. Not even the Flying Scotsman could derail the Green Machine as the Dutchman hit a 104.76 average and 50% on his doubles to secure a place in the Final.

Smith was forced to work in the early rounds to see off Ron Meulenkamp and John Henderson. A 4-1 victory over Ryan Searle was then followed by a 5-1 success against Luke Humphries.

Nathan Aspinall gave Bully Boy a scare in the semi-final, but the St Helens native prevailed 6-3 with a 105.22 average 17 maximums – a record for a semi-final match.

Vital statistics

There’s not a great deal between the two across the whole tournament. Van Gerwen is 3.11 points ahead in terms of competition average, while the Dutchman also edges the checkout percentages 46.25% to 44.83%.

Bully Boy has at least hit more maximums – 51 to MVG’s 32, although that could be in part down to the Green Machine’s tendency to switch downstairs to T19. In short, there’s very little to split the two since they entered the competition in round two.

Head-to-Head

MVG holds two important cards that Smith doesn’t. The first is that he has the edge when it comes to experience in high-pressure matches, and importantly world championship finals.

The second is their head-to-head record. Bully Boy has won just six of the 31 meetings between the pair since a UK Open Scottish Regional Final in 2009. Van Gerwen’s record also includes an 11-4 success in the Final of the Premier League in May.

It isn’t all bad news for Smith, though. He’s beaten the world number one twice this year, including in the semi-finals of the Shanghai Darts Masters, which he subsequently went onto win.

Match Odds

The Coral traders make van Gerwen the 1/4 favourite, against 3/1 for Smith. With the Dutchman winning each of his previous two finals 7-3 and 7-4, it’s 9/2 about the former and 5/1 for the latter.

Bully Boy may not be favourite for the match, but he should at least prevail where 180s are concerned. He’s 4/5 to hit more than MVG, with 5/6 about him hitting Over 15.5.

And after filling up the treble bed in the first leg of his match against Aspinall, we go 6/4 he repeats the trick here. Both players are also more than capable of reeling in the big fish, with a 170 checkout for either priced at 3/1.   

Click here for the latest Michael van Gerwen v Michael Smith odds.

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All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing