Tenacious Wawrinka can force a tie-break but Nadal’s class will tell
Four of the last nine matches between Rafael Nadal and Stanislas Wawrinka have featured a first set tie-break and the 11/4 about a recurrence of that scenario is worth a bet.
Nadal is 1/4 to win the match, as he has in all 12 of the clashes between these players since 2007.
He ruthlessly disposed of a rejuvenated Roger Federer in the semi-final, winning 7-6 6-3 6-3 despite suffering from painful blisters on his hand.
However his demeanour showed no sign of the obvious pain that he must have been feeling and it’s hard to see him using the injury as an excuse should he lose.
Bet on the first set to go to a tie-break at 11/4
But that looks unlikely.
Wawrinka has failed to take a set from Nadal in their 12 matches which is an astounding fact, and one that will surely be playing on the mind of the Swiss number eight seed.
He has had an excellent tournament which included a surprise defeat of Novak Djokovic in the quarter-final.
The 28-year-old then had to work hard to see off Tomas Berdych in the semi-final, in a match which included three tie-breaks.
It’s worth remembering that 4/1 chance Wawrinka will be fresh, having only completed four matches in this tournament due to his opponents failing to last out/make the game.
Bet on Rafael Nadal to win 3-0 at 10/11
However this should be a straight-forward win for Nadal, who will be keen to keep the game as brief as possible due to his hand injury.
As a result, the 10/11 about the Spaniard winning 3-0 looks the way forward and is worth a decent bet.
Nadal won the Australian Open in 2009 and his experience of major finals is crucial; on the other hand this is Wawrinka’s first major final.
The big-hitter is in fine form at present, and has the ability to win a major in the future, especially on clay, however he looks to face too tough a test in Sunday’s match.
First set to go to a tie-break at 11/4
Rafael Nadal to win 3-0 at 10/11