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Latest Coral Election Forecast sees Tories and Labour losing ground

Coral today published its latest Coral Election Forecast (CEF)  based on the current odds which sees the Conservatives (278) maintaining a narrow lead over Labour (270) in terms of the number of seats the parties are predicted to win.

Both parties however have lost ground since last week, by six seats each, with the forecast seat expectation for the SNP jumping from 36 seats to 48 seats. It appears that while Labour are now forecast to win an additional six seats mainly from the Conservatives, at the same time they are now predicted to lose a further twelve seats to the SNP.

Despite the Conservative Party only having a narrow eight seat lead over Labour in the CEF Coral still rate them 4/9 favourites to win the most seats on 7th May with Labour odds against at 7/4. However the likelihood of a Hung Parliament continues to increase with Coral shortening the odds to 1/10 from 1/8.

While the Conservative Party are odds-on to win most seats in the Election, the race for Number 10 is now neck and neck according to the betting with Ed Miliband taking a small lead in terms of the odds. Miliband has for the first time become the Coral favourite to be the Prime Minister on 1st June, at odds of 5/6, with Cameron now second favourite to hang on to his post, at odds of Even money.

“In the battle to win most seats Labour seem to have taken one step forward and two steps back over the last week thanks to the SNP, yet at the same time Ed Miliband’s chances of replacing David Cameron as Prime Minister have increased according to the odds,” said Simon Clare, Coral Spokesman.

The Liberal Democrats forecast seat success has barely altered over the last three weeks of the CEF but the unpredictable situation in Scotland is evidence by the CEF first forecasting 45 seats to the SNP on 7th April, then forecasting 36 seats on 14th April, but this week seeing a big increase in the SNP expected seat success to 48.

“In the last few days the recent polls in Scotland have stimulated significant betting activity with Coral on the SNP in many constituencies, with their odds shortening across the board, and this has been reflected in the latest Coral Election Forecast. It will be interesting to see whether the polls and the betting in support of the SNP proves accurate come Election Day,” added Clare.

 

ENDS

 

Notes to Editors:

The Coral Election Forecast (CEF)  is a mathematical model that uses Coral’s odds on all 650 constituencies to calculate the likely chances of each party winning each seat which then culminates in a predicted total seat outcome for each party on Election Day.  As the odds for constituencies alter so the CEF forecast will alter.

Here is how the weekly CEF has changed over the last three weeks.

 

Coral Election Betting Forecast Tracker:

                        21st April                              14th April                             7th April

Con                        278                                         284                                         285

Lab                         270                                         276                                         264

SNP                        48                                           36                                           45

LD                           26                                           26                                           27

UKIP                        5                                              6                                              7

PC                           3                                              2                                              2

Green                      1                                              2                                              2

Other                     19                                           18                                           18

 

 

Coral Election Betting:

 

**To Be UK Prime Minister on June 1st

5-6 Ed Miliband (from Evs), Evs David Cameron (from 4-5), 16-1 Any other person

 

**Party To win most seats

4-9 Conservatives, 7-4 Labour, 250-1 UKIP, 1000-1 Liberal Democrats, Green Party

 

**To win an overall majority

1-10 Hung Parliament, 13-2 Conservatives, 20-1 Labour, 250-1 UKIP, 1000-1 Liberal Democrats

 

**Make up of next government

5-4 Coalition involving Liberal Democrats, 8-1 Coalition involving the SNP, 14-1 Coalition involving UKIP, 16-1 Coalition involving the Greens

 

**Two elections in 2015

11-4 Yes, 1-4 No

 

** Conservative Seats

5-6          284 or more seats

5-6          283 or fewer seats

 

** Labour Seats

8-11       267 or more seats

Evs         266 or fewer seats

 

** SNP Seats

Evs         51 or more seats

8-11       50 or fewer seats

 

** Lib Dem Seats

5-6          26 or more seats

5-6          25 or fewer  seats

 

** UKIP seats

5-6          4 or more seats

5-6          3 or fewer seats