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Big Match Breakdown: Brazil v Mexico

Cian Carroll | 2 July 2018

Preview and tips ahead of the big game

It’s South America versus Central America as Brazil clash with Mexico in a last-16 match at the Samara Arena.

After a slightly sticky start, Brazil eased through to the knockout phase with 2-0 wins over Costa Rica and Serbia.

Mexico were incredibly nearly eliminated after losing 3-0 to Sweden in their final group game. However, South Korea pulled off the upset of upsets to send holders Germany home.

The Coral News Team go in-depth into this fascinating clash with a Big Match Breakdown

Head-To-Head

There’s a storied history between these two sides having played each other on no less than 40 occasions.

Brazil have the better of the clashes, winning 27 of them. Mexico have won 10, with seven draws in between.

The pair met in the group stages of the last World Cup with Selecao failing to overcome the Mexicans. It finished 0-0 with El Tri goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa pulling off some incredible saves.

Mexico last beat Brazil in June 2012 in a friendly at Cowboys Stadium, Texas. It finished 2-0.

Likely XIs

Don’t expect too many changes from either side after reasonably decent group performances.

However, Tite has a worry at left back with Marcelo reportedly a doubt. That could see Atletico Madrid’s Felipe Luis starting.

Gabriel Jesus was largely ineffective in the group games and Roberto Firmino could start in his place.

For Mexico, expect Juan Carlos Osorio to go with a similar or exact line-up as in the group stage games. Hiving Lozano and Carlos Vela will ably support Javier Hernandez up top.

Key Battles

Philippe Coutinho has arguably been Brazil’s star player of the tournament so far. The former Liverpool attacker has scored twice and been generally mercurial in open play.

Andres Guardado will need to be mindful of Coutinho finding pockets of space to weave his magic. Neymar too could come in for heavy-handed treatment from El Tri.

For Mexico, veteran Vela has been impressive in behind Chicharito. Osorio’s side are tactically very flexible but will probably look to counter-attack Brazil.

That will mean big roles for wide forwards Miguel Layun and Lozano. With Brazil’s first choice full-backs a doubt, Selecao can be got at.

Match Odds

Brazil are heavy favourites in the 90-minute match betting at 1/2. Mexico are available 6/1, while the draw is 29/10.

If Mexico are going to succeed here they’ll have to overcome an unenviable record. El Tri have lost at this stage of the World Cup on six consecutive occasions.

And, ominously, Brazil look like they’re getting better as the tournament progresses. But the South American team aren’t perfect and they can be attacked.

Mexico have looked vibrant in attack, especially at teams who come at them. This looks like a game with goals. Over 2.5 Goals is Evens, while Brazil to win and Over 2.5 Goals is 6/4.

If you fancy Mexico to make it interesting, Brazil to win and both teams to score is 11/4. In the goalscorer markets, Coutinho is 15/8 Anytime. The Barcelona ace Coutinho who has now been involved in six goals in his last seven matches.

Interestingly, only Neymar and Jesus have scored more goals under Tite than Paulinho (8). The Barca midfielder is 10/3 to get on the scoresheet Anytime.

World Cup previews, betting tips and insight – Coral have it all.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing