Ante-post trendwatch – the Coral Scottish Grand National at Ayr
As soon as the last microscopic specks of Aintree dust have settled on the 2013 Grand National the attention of the top trainers will turn to the next of the ‘Nationals’, The Coral Scottish Grand National. Whether or not you were lucky/wise enough to nab the winner at Aintree, here are some telling trends with which to make punting hay of the likely runners at Ayr.
It’s strongly advised to steer well clear of runners who have contested the Grand National at Aintree – of 29 runners who made the post Aintree trip to the Firth of Clyde in the past decade none have triumphed, with only one making the places.
This is not a race for those who have had a long lay off with all the runners who have been off the track for more than 60 days have failed to enter the winners enclosure during the past decade.
Horses rated lower than 144 coming into the race have held sway, winning eight of the last 10 renewals, although it should be noted that those running off higher marks have a strong record when taking their chances, achieving two wins and nine places from just 42 entrants.
It’s certainly well worth keeping ’em peeled for handicappers racing with a penalty, eight have contested the race in the past ten years with all four who didn’t end their races with a fall making the frame and two winning.
With the exception of Scottish National standing dish Merigo – who was winning the race for the second last year aged 11 – all the who took the prize in the last 10 years were aged between eight and 10 years old.
Among those popular in the Scottish Grand National betting Our Mick, Big Occasion and Rocky Creek – all 12/1 shots with Coral – are all too young if the trends are to be believed.
Rival D’Estruval – 8/1 favourite as the betting stands – looks a far more likely type on the above trends. The eight-year-old sits right atop the “likely” official ratings bracket on 143 and is a certain stayer having looked booked for a place in this year’s 4m National Hunt Novices Chase at Cheltenham back in March until departing two from home.