Aintree Grand National Start 03 04 13
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Grand National betting trendwatch – a 40/1 winner appears from the mist

| 03.04.2013

With an enormous field boasting a dizzying array of form, few races are more difficult to get a handle on from a form perspective than the Grand National. Here we’ve consulted time-worn trends in a bid to sift through the 40 runners in a bid to eliminate all but one entrant, an unheralded a 40/1 shot.

No Grand National winner has been off the course for more 56 days since Aldaniti carried Bob Champion to an emotional Aintree triumph back in 1981.

So not – Imperial Commander, Sunnyhillboy, Colbert Station, Balthazar King, Lost Glory, Poker Di Sivola and reserves Pentiffic and Gullible Gordon.

Just three winners since 1980 have been aged eight or younger, whilst just three horses aged 12 or older have triumphed in the same period.

So not – Harry The Viking, Lost Glory, Join Together, Saint Are and reserves Soll and Viking Blond

or – Cloudy Lane, Swing Bill, Mortimers Cross, Mumbles Head, Treacle, Always Waining, Oscar Time, Ballabriggs.

Horses carrying 10st11lbs or more have won seven of the last 10 runnings and filled 16 of the places during that period.

So not – Tatenen, Chicago Grey, Quiscover Fontaine, The Rainbow Hunter, Becasueicouldn’t see, Rare Bob, Mr Moonshine, Pearlysteps, Ninetieth Minute, Auroras Encore, Tarquinius, Any Currency Major Malarkey and reserves Major Malarkey and Backstage.

The last 10 winners had run between three and six time since September the previous year.

So not – What A Friend, Quel Esprit, Seabass, On His Own, Cappa Bleu

Eight of the last 10 winners had a run over hurdles in January, February or March

So not – Weird Al, Big Fella Thanks, Teaforthree, Joncol

Nine of the last 10 Grand National victors had finished in the first five on their most recent completed start.

So not – Forpadydeplasterer

The winner is: ACROSS THE BAY, a 40/1 shot at Coral.