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Southampton v Derby County Betting Tips: Tight tie on the South Coast?

Nick Murphy | 16 January 2019

FA Cup betting preview and odds

A trip to Accrington Stanley is the prize for the winner of tonight’s FA Cup third round replay between Southampton and Derby County at St Mary’s.

The sides shared a pulsating 2-2 draw at Pride Park 11 days ago. But who will book their place in the fourth round with victory this evening? You can follow all the action live on BBC One from 7:45pm; until then we’ve put together a handy preview ahead of the tie.

Head-to-Head

Last week’s 2-2 stalemate was the first meeting between the sides since 2012, when the Saints blitzed the Rams 4-0 at home. Derby are winless in their last six head-to-head clashes in total, although Frank Lampard’s men have triumphed in all three previous FA Cup encounters.

That’s all well and good, but Southampton haven’t lost in the cup to lower league opposition since 2008. So how will tonight play out?

Likely XIs

Southampton tend to set-up in a 4-2-3-1 system under Ralph Hasenhuttl. That’s unlikely to change with the visit of Derby.

Shane Long will spearhead the charge ahead of Mohamed Elyounoussi, Stuart Armstrong and Nathan Redmond. Youngsters Callum Slattery, Jack Stephens and Matt Targett should get starts further back.

The Rams have fewer options to change their line-up, although Duane Holmes could come in for Harry Wilson. Academy graduates Jayden Bogle, Max Lowe and Max Bird should also retain their spots from the initial match, with Kelle Roos replacing Scott Carson in goal.

Southampton vs Derby - Football tactics and formations

Key Battles

Derby’s bustling front three will exert plenty of pressure on a youthful Southampton defence. Jack Marriott has 10 goals to his name since mid-September and also netted in the first match – he’ll require the bulk of the Saints’ attention.

For the hosts, Nathan Redmond has been rejuvenated under Hasenhuttl. The winger has netted four times since the Austrian’s arrival. Alongside the tricky Elyounoussi and in-form Armstrong, the Rams’ inexperienced left side will have to be on their game. By contrast, wily old stager Richard Keogh should enjoy a real battle with Saints front man Long.

Match Odds

Southampton couldn’t get the job done at Pride Park but are 7/10 to win the match in 90 minutes here. The Coral traders go 11/4 about the draw, with 19/5 for a Derby win in normal time.

The Rams are slightly shorter to win the tie outright at 12/5, with the Saints even heavier favourites at 3/10. Both sides have plenty of performers capable of putting the ball in the back of the net, so it’s 3/4 about Both Teams to Score.

Danny Ings is unlikely to start but remains the likeliest scorer at 19/20. Redmond netted a brace in the first match and is 21/10 Anytime, with Marriott a 5/2 chance for the visitors.

James Ward-Prowse is a 7/2 shot to follow up his goal at the weekend with another here.

Click here for more Southampton v Derby County odds.

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All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing